It’s late on a Thursday. I’m in the office talking with Adam about the Roman Empire – of course as men we think about it at least twice per day. Adam studied History at Cambridge and as our resident boffin was randomly miffed at how we talk about the empire as it was ‘in decline’.
“It didn’t decline, even though of course it did”, he exclaimed.
“It also transitioned, over 500 years,
Byzantines called themselves Romans for a further thousand years until the Ottomans!”.
We continued to debate what decline actually is and means… which brought us on to Ray Dalio’s book mapping the rise and fall of empires.
Which then brought us onto (I promise we do do work in the office) The Fourth Turning by Straus and Howe. Another book on Generational Theory, how everything is circular – ebbing, flowing. Rinsing, repeating.
None of these authors invented these themes, they’re merely observers, documenters. The original thinking goes back past Mannheim and Jefferson and even further back. Critics arguing that boxing and categorising how the pendulum appears to swing is a purely self serving exercise. One that gives humans comfort, with the appearance of understanding and control.
I hear the critics but to me nature is circular, seasonal, and I can’t think of one process that doesn’t follow a similar ruleset, even down to business cycles in our economy, deeper down into our startup ecosystem.
So, as a thought experiment I’ve taken a framework from The Fourth Turning to see if we can use it to thematically predict the future for our firm, the founders we work with, and the startups they’re building.
Will the generational phase we’re currently in, and the next, dictate what we should invest in?
It’s a really interesting book and hypothesis, and posits this:
History repeats itself in 80-year blocks or roughly the span of a human lifetime. Within these 80-year history blocks, we have four ‘turnings’ of around 20 years, what we would consider generations. Throughout our history, these blocks have repeated, and are remarkably similar to each other.
The first turning is a high, an upbeat era filled with conformity. The second turning is an awakening, a passionate era. The third turning is an unraveling, a downcast era. And the fourth turning is crisis, an era of upheaval. Can you guess which turning we’re right now?
Yes. We’re in that one.
Looking at this Turning (using US history) – Our ‘High’ was 1946-64 – the birth of rock’n’roll, space, jets, fast cars – ending with the assassination of JFK Nov 1963.
Our second Turning, the ‘Awakening’ 1964-84 – a period of non-conformity containing Star Wars, the Beatles, Kubrick, Computers, civil and women’s rights, acid, Vietnam protests – ending with Reagan’s re-election.
Turning 3, the ‘Unravelling’ – the fall of Soviet communism, songs about violence and decay in deteriorating cities, the LA riots, OJ, Bosnia, Columbine High School shootings, September 11th, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Ending with the financial crisis of 2008.
And the 4th Turning, where we are now, one of ‘Crisis‘ – 2008-2028 – Political divide, Covid, financial inequality… the rest to be defined.
Before this it was WWII to now, before that the US Civil War to WWII, before that the US Revolution to the US Civil War… and back in time.
Each Turning has an archetype that defines that generation. Those born in Turning 1 are the Prophets, the Steve Jobs characters.
Turning 2 in the Awakening are the GenX Nomads – the Musks taking us to Mars, in electric cars, hyperloops.
Turning 3’s Millenial archetype is the Hero – The activists, Thunberg, Malala, the front line workers.
And this 4th Turning will be defined by the Artist – as yet to be named.
(Of course history doesn’t repeat itself, but yes it sure rhymes. So let’s put some bold predictions on paper. See where they land.)
Hmm.. the Artist huh… who are the artists of the now?
The technologists are – they will create the future in code. Ai engineers *are* our artists in residence. Technology has always saved us from ourselves and to circle back round from Crisis to our next generational High will take a little extra helping hand from Ai.
What kinds of Startups are they going to build?
2025 will be where Ai hits the real world in business. We’re all talking about foundational models and the spinout tools such as Midjourney for cool images, Ai chatbots in customer service, and millions are now using ChatGPT instead of Google search.
Have you seen bland.ai?
Or cursor.com? Where developers can write code in natural language, query, edit, launch.
Well imagine when you can stitch everything together? This next step is Agentic Workflows (via Andrew Ng) which will radically transform how we work.
This is where Ai agents within an organisation talk to each other. One LLM will start a task, another will then reflect on that task, another may add/improve it, then deploy – in a workflow.
Organisations of any size will be able to automate away many of their processes using Ai agents, delivering productivity and efficiency like we’ve never experienced.
The next iteration will be when my agents talking to yours, which is not as far away as some think.
Powerful, so what about the risks?
These practical and pragmatic applications of Ai will lead to a need for new forms of governing. Not only will technology create that need but it will also supply it.
Sam Altman from OpenAi saw the risk of Ai to the labour market and humanity so launched worldcoin – A globally-inclusive identity and financial network, owned by the majority of humanity. Personally I’m not convinced, but I also understand how one of the leaders of the Ai revolution was keen to provide answers to its potential dark side. More initiatives like this will come, I have no doubt.
Coming back to the Fourth Turning framework – We now have the Adaptive and Civic mindset coming through into the workforce.
On that note, Ai is the first technology I can think of that can solve the very problems it creates. And not just for governing. The sectors to be transformed are unending – agtech, legal, manufacturing, supply… where education, healthcare and welfare will now be nearer the top of the ‘investability’ [sic] list.
I know the news cycle loves doom, and our hyperconnected world currently thrives in mis and disinformation but personally I’m a bull. The next generational shift is just round the corner and we’re in the front seat. There is so much to be hopeful for.
– who doesn’t want to live in a High?
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“Human productivity is the most important force in causing the world’s total wealth, power, and living standards to rise over time.” – Ray Dalio