Is this 1999? The data cuts both ways.
This Week's Briefing
The CAPE ratio has crossed 40 twice in history. The last time was just before the Nasdaq lost 78% of its value.
But some may argue that the revenue this time is real revenue.
In 1999 the metric was page views and today it's trillions of tokens a week in actual usage.
Anthropic went from zero to $9 billion ARR in three years, a ramp that took Amazon a decade.
Nobody knows where the top is, but it's worth knowing the arguments on both sides.
Is this 1999? Swipe for the case for and against.
Key Takeaways
- Some of the numbers are hard to ignore
- The cracks showing up this summer
The Bigger Picture
- But this time the revenue is real
- Bubbles need infinite supply. This one has physical limits.
Why it matters
“Nobody knows where the top is. But knowing the arguments on both sides is a start.”