The credit market is pricing Oracle like junk debt Body: Equity markets are near record highs, which is why we should be paying attention. Almost nobody in tech watches credit default swaps.

SLIDE 2 - What a CDS actually is Headline: It’s insurance on someone else’s debt Body: If you’re holding $10m of a company’s debt, you can buy a contract that pays out if they default. The price of that contract moves daily as the market changes its mind about how risky the company is, and you can trade it.

SLIDE 3 - Why it’s a useful signal Headline: It’s traded, so it gets priced every single day Body: Earnings tell you about a quarter that’s already finished, and ratings agencies take their time. CDS spreads give you a live read on what sophisticated lenders think about a company’s ability to pay what it owes.

SLIDE 4 - Oracle Headline: 244 basis points to insure Oracle’s debt Body: That’s $244,000 a year to cover $10m. For a company that spent decades as one of the most dependable cash generators in enterprise software, that’s a huge place to be trading.

SLIDE 5 - SpaceX Headline: SpaceX is at 194 basis points and rising Body: They’re raising $40bn to buy chips, $30bn in bonds and $10bn in bank loans. Going public helped, because a listed company with daily pricing and proper disclosure makes a much more comfortable borrower. The spread has kept widening regardless.

SLIDE 6 - What it tells you Headline: The AI build-out has shifted from equity to debt Body: While companies were funding CapEx out of free cash flow, credit barely mattered. Now that the build-out runs on borrowed money, lenders have a say in how far it goes.

SLIDE 7 - Closer Headline: Worth watching the signals nobody’s talking about 👇.

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